Cuba recalled its doctors from Brazil after Bolsonaro threat

Cuban medical cooperation in Brazil began with a framework agreement during the term of former President Dilma Rousseff.

Nearly 200 health workers (doctors, nurses and technicians from the sector) arrived in Havana from Brazil, as part of the quick repatriation of the several thousand Cuban aid workers who provide their services in the South American giant.

The return operation is a resounding response to the statements of the elected President of Brazil, Jairo Bolsonaro, which Havana has considered as aggressive and threatening.

Bolsonaro unequivocally stated that he would possibly break relations with Cuba.

Cuban medical cooperation in Brazil began with a framework agreement during the term of former President Dilma Rousseff.

The rupture of the agreement of medical cooperation already entails in itself economic and social repercussions, impossible to calculate at this moment.

It is difficult to say how many hundreds of thousands of Brazilians, surely millions of poor, low-income, marginal or rural people will be deprived, by political criteria, of health coverage efficiently covered by Cuban doctors.

As for what this means for Cuba, it is still not known the loss in income to the Ministry of Health that this decision implies. To these must be added that Cuban repatriated employees will also lose their personal income for work (in foreign currency), which is not negligible given the always special Cuban economic circumstances.

However, the open bilateral crisis also has other potential derivations, since Bolsonaro had pointed out in previous statements a possible "rupture of relations" between both countries, something that would have more serious implications, beyond even the political.

In Cuba the good political relations are indispensable to be able to accede to the economic area. Therefore here are some important issues which must be analysed in terms of the relation cost-benefit.

The best example could be the Puerto del Mariel mega-project (Mariel Port), the flagship of the Cuban government economic bets, with an investment of almost $ 4 billion (guaranteed by the Government of Brazil, for what can be considered as debt). Works on Mariel were carried out to a large extent by large Brazilian construction companies (a sector that has clearly supported Bolsonaro). In addition, a small group of large companies in that country, specializing in maritime transport management, currently have a leading role in its exploitation.

The deepening of the crisis just opened would force on the one hand Cuba to assume an unexpected debt, but at the same time it would close the doors to the big Brazilian construction companies to the important investments underway on the Island, related to tourism, infrastructure or energy.

Another issue to take into account, may be the massive presence in the Cuban markets of all types of Brazilian products: meat products, canned products and various consumer products. In this case, Cuba would lose a supplier, at a good price and close, while the large Brazilian agro-exporting companies (which also supported Bolsonaro) would lose, almost without realizing it, a safe and growing market.

Likewise, we could continue to point out issues, such as tourism or Cuban emigration to Brazil, which would complete the complexity of a total breakdown of relations, very damaging for both parties.

An issue to follow, especially from the inexperienced side of the new Brazilian President, because Cuba has already demonstrated that it has proven experience in handling this type of crisis.