Middle East analyst and kurdologist Vadim Makarenko, who has worked extensively on the region's politics, the Kurdish issue, Turkey-Russia relations, and regional conflicts, spoke to ANF about the latest developments in the Middle East.

In the ongoing war in the Middle East, referred to as the Third World War, the most recent development has been the overthrow of Assad in Syria, replaced by HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham). Given that the war involves multiple actors such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, the United States (US), and Israel, what does this development in Syria signify? Who has won and who has lost? What regional consequences does it have?

There is no need for exaggeration; fortunately, the term "Third World War" is not being used, but in the Middle East, after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, a complex process of adaptation among the newly emerged countries has been ongoing. For a long time, Israel, which Arab countries did not want to recognize, proved that it could not be erased from the Middle Eastern map in 1948, 1967, and 1973. However, a regional community where Middle Eastern countries treat each other without prejudice and arrogance has yet to be formed. The Abraham Accords could lead to such a community, but this will take decades.

In addition to the difficult relationship with Israel, there have been issues in the inter-state relations of Middle Eastern countries. The Iran-Iraq War, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, tensions between Syria and Jordan, and between Egypt and Libya, all contributed to a growing conflict web. A regional contradiction has also formed around Yemen. Turkey’s policies in Syria and Iraq are considered a serious threat, and there are fears of attempts to forcibly change the borders of states in this region of the Middle East. The fact that the conflict is occurring in regions with a significant Kurdish population makes this situation even more urgent. Another Gordian Knot is the Israel-Iran tension. After a series of missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, the Israeli military launched an uncompromising and brutal attack on Gaza and Hezbollah. Following Assad’s overthrow, Israel took advantage of the situation and destroyed Syria's technologically advanced weapons. The Israel-Iran tension has now reached its peak. The United States has issued its most dangerous threats toward Iranian military facilities on its own soil.

As the situation escalates, it becomes necessary to find a solution with the participation of world leaders and to support the region’s structural framework. Therefore, the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia are almost permanently present in the Middle East. However, today, despite the significant geopolitical changes that have occurred in this region, it seems unlikely that they will clash with each other, unlike the situations in 1956, 1967, and 1973.

In addition to foreign policy issues, Middle Eastern countries also face numerous internal problems. They are experiencing significant issues with internal stability because they have failed to develop a common national identity. This is not a simple issue in countries such as Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Libya, and Algeria. Africa is not included in this. Moreover, these issues have not been resolved even in seemingly prosperous countries like Egypt and the Gulf monarchies, although they may remain hidden. Everyone felt this during the Arab Spring. When the situation reversed in Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Tunisia, and Syria, tensions flared.

The Ba'ath parties in Iraq and Syria, despite having everything they needed, failed to modernize their countries. The result was the collapse of the political regimes in both countries. Both regimes were overthrown as a result of significant foreign interventions, but the internal ethnic and religious conflicts that prepared the ground for their downfall could not be resolved by external forces. Therefore, Iraq has experienced political instability for the last twenty years since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and this situation has brought the country to the brink of collapse multiple times. This instability has not yet been overcome. No one can predict how many more years it will take for Iraq to become a politically stable country. Iraq is now repeating the path it once followed, but with Shiite dominance. The situation of the Kurds in Iraq is difficult, but the Kurdish Autonomous Region has played a stabilizing role in this period, contributing to the preservation of a united Iraq rather than undermining its integrity and stability.

After the overthrow of Assad’s regime through violence, the situation in Syria will take decades to resolve. The inability of the parties in Syria to reach agreements and compromise decisions while respecting each other’s legitimate interests has led to a new authoritarian regime with Sunni and radical Islamic tones, which is an even greater setback than the era of Hafez al-Assad. Everyone will lose because society will have to start over. In this context, we hope that a forced solution to the issue of Syrian Kurds and the Autonomous Region in Northern and Eastern Syria will not be imposed. However, the United States, with its unpredictable policy in this region, is the only actor that can guarantee the de facto Kurdish territorial autonomy in Syria.

With the Gaza War, we see that Israel has adopted a more aggressive and influential stance in the Middle East. What do you think is Israel’s ultimate goal?

Israel saw the 7 October 2023 attack as an opportunity to destroy Gaza and Hamas. It succeeded in flattening Gaza and removing the current Hamas leadership, with tens of thousands of Gazans losing their lives. However, the situation remains unchanged: Gaza will either rise again, Hamas will find a new leader, or a new organization will emerge to take the leadership of the people of Gaza. Nothing will change. This process will take a long time, but sooner or later, Israel and the Palestinians will be forced to recognize each other based on the existing reality, which will continue to favor Israel. The rapid establishment of a sovereign, independent, and self-sustaining Palestinian state is in Israel’s best interest. If Israel wishes to continue the process initiated by the Abraham Accords, it will have to take this step. Hamas needs to quickly shift to political and peaceful methods in order to defend the interests of the Palestinian people.

There are comments stating that the Lausanne and Sykes-Picot Agreements have lost their validity. Do you agree with this comment? If so, what foundations do you foresee for the redesigning of the Middle East?

It seems unlikely that any country is directly guided by the Lausanne Agreement, as all countries recognize the existing Middle Eastern states within their borders, which have historically emerged, and this includes states that are not subject to revision under the provisions of the Lausanne Agreement or, more importantly, the Sykes-Picot-Sazonov Agreement, excluding Israel (which is a separate issue). Of course, there is the fear that, just as Turkey has attempted to change its borders with Cyprus, it may try to forcefully alter its borders with Syria and Iraq. However, this is not related to the Lausanne Agreement, but rather to the current military-political situation in the region. Turkey is politicizing the Kurdish issue and using baseless accusations to justify its illegal demands, such as the creation of a security zone on the Syrian and Iraqi borders and the Arabization of these lands by sending Syrian refugees back.

In this situation, the cessation of any military activities of Kurdish formations along Turkey's borders will help eliminate even the most extreme pretexts for Turkey’s aggressive actions toward Syria and Iraq, as the Kurdish population in the border areas on both sides of the border is largely affected by this. Moreover, I believe that Abdullah Öcalan, the unconditional spiritual leader of the Kurds, regardless of his party or other organizational affiliations, will contribute to the resolution of the Kurdish issue by calling for the cessation of war, as his message respects the rights of every Kurdish person, wherever they live in Kurdistan or beyond, as an individual and a citizen.

This situation will also strengthen Iraq and Syria's relations with Turkey and enhance their positions on the international stage. The Kurdish issue should be resolved primarily through the election of local governing bodies, starting with municipalities in areas where Kurds directly live.

There are assessments stating that the main objective of the Middle East war is the implementation of a new energy route project from India to Europe and that the path is being cleared for this purpose. What is the importance of accessing new energy sources and the projected trade and energy route project? What is its relation to the ongoing war in the Middle East?

In the 1950s and 1960s, and in the early 1970s, the issue of oil and natural gas transport routes was a serious concern; however, today, due to the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies to Europe and especially to the global market, it no longer plays a significant role. The military tensions in the Middle East now have internal causes. Many countries in the region, especially Israel, are interested in stirring up inter-state conflicts to use these issues in their domestic power struggles.

In the 20th century, the two key actors in the region were Turkey and Iran. Following the Abraham Accords signed between Saudi Arabia and Israel, there are assessments suggesting that in the new Middle East, Israel will become the hegemonic power, and Saudi Arabia will assume a regional leadership role. Do you agree with this assessment, and how do you analyze the new situation and the Abraham Accords?

Due to objective reasons, such as its population size, the smallness of its land, and the practical impossibility of significant territorial expansion, Israel does not have the opportunity to become a hegemonic power in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, lacks the necessary economic and environmental conditions to undergo substantial growth and become a regional hegemon. However, along with other Gulf countries, it could become a powerful financial hub in the Middle East.

The Abraham Accords are beneficial for all Middle Eastern countries because they could bring peace, remove obstacles to regional integration, and significantly accelerate the economic growth of Arab countries, particularly relatively poorer Arab nations (Egypt, Iraq, Syria), that need technology and investment.

To be continued...