What does Turkey’s military build-up on Rojava border mean?
Turkey has received the S-400 parts, and simultaneously started a military build-up at Rojava border. Turkey blackmailed the US to change course and gave Russia a message that they could disrupt US plans for the region to look for approval for buffer zone
Turkey has played a double game between the US and Russia in Syria since 2016 and has invaded parts of the country. They wish to continue this game over the S-400 missiles and are looking for approval from international powers to invade Rojava-North and East Syria.
The US government and NATO have protested, but Turkey received delivery of the first parts of the S-400 missile defense system. The same day, they started a military build-up along the Rojava border.
The Turkish military started to build up along the border across from Shexler, Kobane, Gire Spi and Serekaniye in an attempt to get a stronger hand at the table before negotiations this week for the buffer zone with a US delegation in Ankara.
Before the visit of the US delegation, the Turkish army dispatched some tanks and armored vehicles to the Gire Spi and Serekaniye border. They also positioned some armored vehicles starting on July 10.
The claims by certain media organs that the concrete blocks by the border have been removed is far removed from the truth. There were 3 blocks that were removed for a few hours by the Aziziya village in Serekaniye, and they have been put back already.
Meanwhile, there are claims that some border villages in Urfa’s Suruc, Akcakale and Ceylanpinar districts were declared special security zones and some were evacuated. However, there is no Turkish state aligned gang activity observed from the border.
Despite Turkish state threats and blackmail, in Gire Spi and in all the border line, daily life continues.
PLANS FOR A BUFFER ZONE
There have been indirect talks between the US, Turkey and the Administration of North and East Syria for a while now for the “buffer zone” Turkey wants along the Rojava border.
Turkey wants a buffer zone from Derik to the Qereqozax bridge as 30 km deep, and wants to have control of the region.
The Administration of North and East Syriaannounced that they will not accept any plans that include Turkey and the region in question could be under international supervision. Another condition the administration put forth was an end to the occupation in Afrin.
The US has acted as a mediator, and another plan that emerged in these back-and-forth talks was to form a 5 km deep line of international coalition forces observation points, without including cities in the area.
This plan was dubbed the US Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey’s plan, and talks continue to implement it. The US recently held meetings with the UK, France, Germany and several other European states.
US DELEGATION TO VISIT TURKEY
This week a delegation from the US will visit Turkey to discuss the technical aspects of the plan with Turkish officials. But the Turkish state has already started a military build-up along the Rojava border, thinking the best defense would be offense in this case as they worriedly await sanctions due to the violation of CAATSA with the purchase of the S-400s.
BLACKMAILING THE US WITH CHANGING COURSE
The Turkish state, with the build-up along the Rojava border, is blackmailing the US and NATO that they may “change course” in a bid to strengthen their hand at the negotiation table. Threatening the US with a possibility to act with Russia, Erdogan aims to achieve his neo-Ottoman goals.
MESSAGE TO RUSSIA: “WE MIGHT REMOVE THE US FROM THE REGION”
Meanwhile, Erdogan’s message to Russia is, “We may disrupt the US’ plans on the region and remove them,” as voiced last September in the triple summit between Russia, Iran and Turkey in Tehran last September.
The Turkish state has also intensified attacks against the Shehba region in recent days to prolong the situation in Idlib a while longer.
DREAMS OF THE NATIONAL PACT
Erdogan wishes to achieve his goals for the Misak-i Milli, the National Pact, to push Kurds down to the international road that starts from Derik and ends at Aleppo with an attack against North and East Syria in order to reach Mosul and Kirkuk over Shengal. He is looking for approval from the US in particular to these ends.
US STANCE UNCLEAR
The US has supported Turkey fully in Idlib, paved the way to the Afrin invasion, and failed to put up a meaningful fight against the S-400s. It is still unclear what the country’s reaction will be to the Turkish state turning the whole region back into a conflict zone.
Meanwhile, Turkey wishes to revive ISIS to use them as a tool in their neo-Ottoman dreams. The region’s peoples and defense forces are preparing for this terrible eventuality.
REGION’S PEOPLES AND DEFENSE FORCES PREPARE
The peoples of the region have issued a decision to take action after the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria declared that they will defend all the gains of the peoples in the region.
It is not difficult to gauge that if conflict kicks off again in the case of an attack, it won’t be confined to the region alone. A possible conflict will also spread over several years.