In the second part of his interview with ANF, academic Zafer Yörük spoke about the consequences of the results of the US election on Syria. 

The first part of the interview can be read here

What will happen if the Democrats win?

We don't really know Kamala Harris' line yet. We don't know because she hasn't spoken out on these issues so far. But the general trend, that is, what Biden tried to do during his four years in office, was to revive the polarization of the Cold War. More precisely, this concept and the idea of ​​reshaping the world accordingly is certainly not something that springs from Biden's personality alone. On the one hand, there are the countries he calls ‘democratic’, mainly Western countries. On the other hand, there are the countries that are called the East or the global South. These include China and Russia in particular, especially those with closed regimes. These are, of course, leading countries and superpowers. Then there are countries with closed regimes, such as Iran, partly North Korea, etc. In Biden's rhetoric, an ‘anti-democratic bloc’ was constructed out of these countries. He tried to constitute this binary worldview. This conflict manifested itself in the Ukraine war. Therefore, the Democrats could abandon this idea and move on to a different narrative and think about a new world design accordingly. Or they will keep this perspective. If they keep this perspective, then it is likely that the conflict in Ukraine will continue. But as I said, there are two factors here.

Which are?

First, Kamala Harris has not yet spoken out on this issue. Second, it is not clear and certain that Kamala Harris will run. Also, how long will Ukraine's resources be enough to continue this war? This is also a question mark. Because the country is running out of human resources. As far as I know, they have started drafting young people into the army. They have even drafted the elderly into the army. So if this war continues, it means that - as Macron said - the French army and the Germans will also be involved and there will be a European-Russian war. Even if Russia does not attack and Europe insists that it will not give up Ukraine, then it will have to go to war itself. This is a big problem, because Europe does not have its own armed forces, no conscription, etc... Europe has ceded too much of its security policy to the US for many years. Therefore, such problems will arise if the Ukraine war continues. In any case, whether Trump or the Democrats come to power, the Ukraine war is unlikely to last much longer. Of course, we don't know about the Russian side, because they have a lot of resources. Or there will actually be a third world war. There seems to be no other solution.

Turkey-Syria deal would be likely under Trump

US policy also has a focus on the Middle East. One of these focuses is closely linked to Turkey's regional policy. Turkey is once again trying to engage in negotiations with Damascus. On the one hand, it has repeatedly said that it would carry out a deportation operation. So, if Trump comes to power, will Turkey get the green light for this policy? After all, Erdoğan was previously in agreement with Trump on this issue.

Most of Turkey's cross-border operations in Syria were carried out during the Trump era. Although Trump also wrote messages like ‘Don't be stupid, be smart’, the same Trump made a statement in a phone call saying that ‘the US will withdraw from all bases and regions in Syria’. Of course, the Pentagon postponed this situation at the time because there was a strategy. I don't think Trump will now say ‘we are withdrawing directly from Syria; Turkey should go there too.’ But, for example, Erdoğan's request for a meeting with Assad was criticized by the current US administration and it was officially stated that this was wrong. On the other hand, after Erdoğan's initiative, an agreement in Syria that both Russia and the US would agree to may be possible. Because although the US and Russia are facing each other in Ukraine, they are not in such an opposing situation in Syria. Therefore, a mutually acceptable solution in Syria seems more possible.

It must be clear that Turkey has postponed its invasion. The situation in Iraq, for example, shows us that there is no need for a major operation. Because the Southern Kurdish government, based on the collaboration of the KDP, is enabling Turkey's military expansion. That is why there is such an expansion. The situation in Syria may also change because the balances are different.

What would cause such a change?

Idlib in Syria functions for Syria like Peshawar in southern Afghanistan. Peshawar is in southern Afghanistan, but it is actually a region of Pakistan. For years, it was used by the Taliban and other Islamist groups as a base of operations against the previous government of Afghanistan. And it still is. The situation in Idlib is similar. Recently, the commanders of the Syrian National Army gathered in Idlib and met with Devlet Bahçeli. And then they met with Alaattin Çakıcı. We don't know who they threatened, but the place is boiling, or rather, it is bleeding like an open wound. Because the jihadist groups that cannot hold on in the war in Syria are coming there one after the other, concentrating and gathering there, and it is a kind of dumping ground for jihadists. Perhaps Russia and the US, Turkey and the Syrian government can find a common solution on what to do with this area. It seems that Democrats or Republicans will not make a difference on this issue. In conclusion, if Trump comes to power, Erdoğan's wish to meet with Assad may be fulfilled.