Following the elections, the new cabinet has introduced some changes. MIT’s head Hakan Fidan has become the foreign minister, while presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın has become the new head of MIT. Is this change just a move to get Fidan, whom Erdogan calls "my confidant", into politics? What was the background of Kalın with intelligence? We will try to find answers to these questions by looking at some events and policies that involved both names.

MIT IN FOREIGN POLICY

The appointment of Fidan, who organized MIT's operations from Libya to the Caucasus and Syria and made the greatest contribution to intelligence’s influence in foreign policy, as foreign minister is consistent with MIT's policy. Because Hakan Fidan first came to prominence following an event that created a crisis in foreign policy. Fidan was one of the key figures in the espionage crisis with Israel in 2013. The Washington Post reported that Hakan Fidan, had exposed 10 agents of the Israeli intelligence service, MOSSAD, to Iran. Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag staunchly defended Fidan against the criticism. Although the Israeli authorities, who made a statement on this issue, said that they were not responsible for revealing the incident to media outlets, Turkey did not deny the allegations.

Editorial writer of Evrensel Newspaper İhsan Çaralan described Fidan's influence in foreign policy: “Maintaining public order with the police force and MIT’s influence in foreign policy were seen as a short cut. Thus, intelligence (MIT) started to play a primary role in foreign policy (…) While diplomatic relations with countries such as Iraq, Syria, Iran, Egypt, Israel and Lebanon were either completely cut off or reduced to low-level protocols, relations with the "opposition" religious sects and political circles in these countries increased through the intelligence. The MIT became the main element of foreign policy, at least for the countries in the region after the relations with various Sunni groups and extremist organizations, especially in Syria and Iraq, were carried out through intelligence organization and ordinary diplomacy with states was narrowed down.

TURKISH SPIES IN LIBYA AND MIT TRUCKS

The two most important examples of these activities by MIT that Çaralan mentioned were the MIT employees who died in Libya and the MIT trucks that delivered ammunition to the jihadists in Syria. The ruling AKP and Erdogan maintained relations with the jihadists through the MIT to become the leader of Islam, especially in the Middle East. In particular, the support for jihadist organizations in Syria was provided by the MIT itself.

The MIT trucks that contained military ammunition to be delivered to Syria were stopped in Hatay on January 1, 2014, and in Adana Ceyhan on January 19, 2014. According to the police report, 1,000 howitzers, 1,000 mortar shells, 50,000 machine gun bullets and 30,000 heavy machine gun shells hidden under medical drugs were found inside the trucks. After the scandal, it was denied that there were guns in the trucks. The prime minister of the time, Ahmet Davutoğlu, said that “those trucks were going to the Turkmen," but Yasin Aktay, the AKP's deputy head of foreign relations, implied that these weapons were sent to the Free Syrian Army that fought ISIS.

After Turkey's mandate to send troops to Libya was passed in the parliament on January 2, 2020, Erdogan said in a speech he delivered in Izmir on February 22: “We have a few martyrs. But let me also say that in reply to our casualties, we neutralized nearly 100 of those legionnaires there.” After Erdogan’s speech, the identities of those who died there came to the fore. On February 22, 2020, Yeniçağ newspaper writer Murat Ağırel announced that those who lost their lives in Libya were MIT agents. On February 26, Ümit Özdağ revealed the names of the MİT members in a speech in the parliament. Following the revelation of the MIT members, journalists Murat Ağırel, Barış Pehlivan, Barış Terkoğlu, Hülya Kılıç, Aydın Keser, Mehmet Ferhat Çelik were arrested and tried for the crime of “disclosure of information that should remain confidential concerning the security and political interests of the state and disclosure of information and documents related to intelligence activities”.

US WARNED MIT

These are some affairs of the MIT that were reflected in the press, but especially the MIT operations in Rojava and the assassinations in Hewler and Silêmanî show how  MIT is engaged in foreign policy. It was claimed that CIA Head William Burns met with Fidan in 2022 and warned about Turkey's air campaign against Syria. The issue concerned Turkey’s drone attacks that endangered US military personnel. At that time, Turkey vowed to launch ground operations in Syria, but it did not receive the green light from either the USA or Russia. Unable to obtain permission for ground operations, Turkey also massacred dozens of civilians while launching numerous air operations in Rojava.

When we look at those years when Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister in the new cabinet, served as the MIT head, it is possible to see that Fidan intervened in many regional issues. It is also noteworthy that these interventions were made with 'hard power' as defined in international relations. It is possible to add that the regional policy did not involve relations with the West, but with the wider Middle East and the Caucasus. So, what will the foreign ministry of Fidan bring after those years shaped by strategies called neo-Ottomanism, zero problems with neighbours and intelligence through MIT? Will Erdogan follow a foreign policy line that does not focus on the West, but on the wider Middle East after the appointment of Fidan who previously designed the region through MIT? Will Hakan Fidan become an important figure in the new foreign policy following the normalization with Syria and the diplomatic thaw with countries such as Libya and Egypt?

SOFT POWER OR CARROT-STICK

What kind of policy will İbrahim Kalın pursue in this region where Turkey followed a "hard power" strategy supported by the MIT? In 2010 after he replaced Ahmet Davutoğlu as the chief foreign policy advisor to the prime minister, Kalın wrote an article on the concept of 'soft power' introduced by Joseph S. Nye, Former US Department of Defence Deputy Minister for International Security Affairs. Kalın translates this concept as “slight power” into Turkish and says: “According to Nye, there are three ways to achieve something. You either bully, or bribe, or persuade  other people. The first means using military methods, and the second means bribing people with 'carrots'. There are abundant examples of these in the history of humanity and in international relations. Sometimes both can appear at the same time. The Middle East policies of successive American governments are a typical example of this. Well, if you want to convince the other person sincerely, not to deceive them, how do you do it? You can only do this by pursuing fair, smart and credible policies.”

While Kalin defined "slight power" in an article he wrote 13 years ago, when the Syrian war started, he was promoting a foreign policy based on persuasion, not "soft power", "carrot-stick" or "hard power". The following years did not justify Kalin in foreign policy. We have just explained above that MIT, which he will now run, maintained its presence in the field with hard power.

GERMANY: SETA PROMOTES AKP UNDER THE GUISE OF SCIENCE AND RESEARCH

So, how can Kalın, who served in foreign policy, have anything to do with intelligence? After completing his academic studies in history and Islamic philosophy, İbrahim Kalın first served as the founding chair of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) in 2005 and 2009. The SETA came to the fore both in Turkey and Germany in 2021 after it released a report in 2019. In response to a parliamentary question of the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), the federal government in Germany pointed out that the AKP and the MIT increased their activities in Germany after the coup attempt on July 15, 2016. The federal government said that these activities were carried out as an effort to create public opinion through non-governmental organizations, adding that the SETA took part for the first time in Turkey's intelligence and lobbying efforts. Moreover, another SETA report in 2019 titled "Turkey Extensions of International Media Outlets" targeted journalists in the country. In a reply to a previous parliamentary question posed in 2019 by the Left Party, the federal government revealed that the foundation was funded by the pro-government Albayrak family, adding that Fahrettin Altun, another Erdogan confidant, had worked there before, as well as İbrahim Kalın.

These days, when the cabinet change is being discussed, while Fidan is considered as a figure for the post-Erdogan period, the question remains why Kalın is appointed as the MIT head. However, Kalin is a complementary figure in this task since the MIT has a role in foreign policy, especially in the region outside the West and he is familiar with lobbying and foreign policy issues. Although he rejected a neo-Ottoman strategy and promoted a fair foreign policy, there are strong indications that the relationship between "foreign policy and intelligence" inherited from Fidan will continue.