Turkey is a country with expansionist ambitions in the Middle East. Under the pretext of "fighting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Kurds," it has deployed its army in Iraq and Syria. A significant portion of Southern Kurdistan is currently under military occupation. Turkey has established dozens of military bases across the region. Even the base it built in Bashiqa could not be dismantled by the Iraqi government; instead, Turkey has further entrenched itself and turned it into a permanent presence.

Turkey’s activities in Southern Kurdistan and Iraq go far beyond what has already been mentioned. It has extended its reach to the Turkmen population, training and organizing them along nationalist and reactionary lines. Turkey is using these communities to pursue its broader ambitions in Kirkuk and across Iraq. At the same time, it has transformed Southern Kurdistan into an open economic market under its influence. Turkey is also continuing its efforts to exert influence over Sunni communities. Its interference in Iraq’s internal affairs has become deeply entrenched.

The Turkish army launched its occupation of parts of Syria with the explicit aim of preventing the Kurds from gaining status and power. It formed alliances with numerous groups, including ISIS, and occupied regions such as Afrin (Efrîn) and Serêkaniyê, where it carried out acts of ethnic cleansing against the Kurdish population. Through the deployment of its mercenaries in Idlib, Turkey acted as a protector for Jabhat al-Nusra, enabling it to organize itself like a state. By manipulating the Astana process, Turkey created a front against the Kurds. It stalled both Russia and Iran while supporting Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This support ultimately contributed to the weakening of the Baath regime and the partial withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria. As a result, Russia’s presence in Syria was significantly weakened and its operational capacity severely limited.

Following the weakening of the Baath regime, the Turkish state reached an agreement with HTS and launched new attacks targeting the Kurds and the Autonomous Administration. Areas such as Shehba, Til Rifaat, and Manbij were seized. However, the offensive was halted in Tishrin. These months-long assaults aimed to completely dismantle the Autonomous Administration and crush the Kurdish people.

Turkey is now working to ensure HTS gains full control over parts of Syria. It has placed the newly formed administration under tight surveillance and installed its own operatives in the ministries. Turkey has taken charge of building and training the so-called Syrian army, aiming to expand its influence in the region and establish long-term domination.

Turkey is working to ensure that Syria adopts an extremely centralized and religion-based state structure. Instead of supporting a democratic and pluralistic constitution grounded in freedom, it has encouraged and promoted a reactionary, repressive, and religion-based provisional constitution. Turkey has openly declared its full support for the newly formed provisional government, which, despite all warnings and objections, was established under the control of HTS, excluding Syria’s diverse communities and organized political forces.

Turkey refuses to withdraw from the regions it has occupied in Syria, and there is no serious pressure or demand placed upon it to do so. HTS, meanwhile, is in no position to object. Turkey is not content with the status quo and is now working to establish new military bases across Syrian territory. In recent days, there has been a marked increase in Israeli airstrikes deep inside Syria. These attacks are said to be linked to Turkey’s efforts to construct new military bases. Israel opposes the formation of a state-like structure in Syria under HTS leadership. It defines HTS as a terrorist group with a religious-ideological agenda and views its growing influence as a direct threat to Israeli security.

It is well known that under President Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey has supported the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East and has invested heavily in them. Turkey has also supported Hamas, which has contributed to tensions in its relationship with Israel. Turkey’s attempts to facilitate HTS dominance in Syria have further escalated Israel’s concerns. In response to Turkey’s initiatives to establish military bases at several Syrian airfields, Israel has carried out targeted strikes and issued explicit warnings to Ankara.

As is well known, Israel has declared its intent to redraw the map of the Middle East. Both Hamas and Hezbollah have been largely neutralized. In fact, it was Israel that played a decisive role in the collapse of the Baath regime. Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Syria were consistently targeted and gradually rendered ineffective. As these forces lost their influence, the Baath regime was deprived of its key sources of support and eventually fell. Having engineered this outcome, Israel is now unwilling to allow Turkey to step in and capitalize on these gains. The Middle East is being restructured around Israel’s security priorities. Turkey is not unaware of this reality. Nevertheless, it is seeking to exploit the presence of HTS and the resulting power vacuum in Syria to further its own expansionist agenda.

Turkey is adopting a cautious stance towards Israel. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated: "We do not want to come into conflict with Israel." However, Israel remains firm and unyielding on this matter. It is determined to dismantle Syria’s entire military infrastructure and strongly opposes the establishment of any new, powerful army. On this issue, Turkey and Israel stand on opposing sides.

Turkey is pursuing expansionist policies across the Middle East. President Erdoğan is ideologically aligned with both HTS and the Muslim Brotherhood. He continues to deploy mercenaries and position troops in neighboring countries. However, it is not possible to engage in such aggressive expansionism without eventually coming into conflict with other powers. Unlike Iraq or Syria, Israel is not a weakened state. Still, Turkey is unwilling to relinquish its ambitions in Syria. Erdoğan is likely to push forward as far as circumstances allow. As a result, Syria will remain a persistent source of regional tension.

 Turkey has now fully assumed the role of a reactionary center in the region. This fact must not be ignored. The Turkish state actively works to suppress progressive and democratic movements. By fueling nationalism, it supports religion-based regimes and reactionary groups. Its silence in the face of massacres against Alawite communities, and its backing of HTS in this context, stems from the same ideological alignment.

Source: Ronahi