Kurdish writer and researcher Hussain Jummo spoke to ANF Arabic and said the international powers want the disputed territories to be under joint control of Baghdad and Hewler, and that the current situation will continue in this direction. He said, “The signs point to the US and UK supporting this as well.”

Jummo said these two powers have large scale interests in Iraq and argued that their plannings for the region don’t overlap exactly. He stressed that the US and the UK have very different agendas for Iraq, and added that the agendas towards Sunni Arabs and the Shia are very different.

Jummo said international powers support Hewler and Baghdad working together and stressed that the this will happen in line with the Iraqi constitution.

“RESTRICTIONS ON OIL ACCOUNTS”

Jummo pointed to the oil companies with varying interests and their plans for the oil in Kirkuk as the biggest obstacle the Kurdistan regional government is facing.

He stated that the Turkish and Iranian states are in favor of the disputed areas remaining under the Baghdad government’s control.

“KIRKUK WON’T REMAIN UNDER BAGHDAD’S CONTROL”

Jummo said the following on the situation that emerged in Kirkuk on the evening of October 16:

“In the eyes of the big players, the incidents in the region are small stuff, they don’t have a significant place in the strategic planning. In the end, Kirkuk coming under Baghdad’s control is not permanent, and it doesn’t mean that Kurds have lost the city. If Kurds don’t fight in the region, it is not realistic to expect support from the US. The main issue is the US itself. Since 2011 when they pulled their military forces from Iraq, there is a standing decision to not send troops into the region again. In this framework they support the YPG forces in Rojava, and this is the reason why they support the peshmerga in the South.

“THE US DIDN’T OFFER SUPPORT BECAUSE THE PESHMERGA DIDN’T RESIST”

The US does not support forces that don’t defend themselves. Looking at the night of October 16, the situation in Kirkuk was that the peshmerga forces withdrew without any resistance at all. Neither the peshmerga forces under Barzani nor others displayed any resistance. The US didn’t intervene, because they saw no resistance by the peshmerga.”

“SOUTHERN KURDISTAN ADMINISTRATION DIDN’T FOLLOW THE CHANGE IN TURKEY”

Hussain Jummo pointed out that Turkey’s approach was not positive from the start, only that there were news stories that the relationship with the Kurdistan region was based in history and said: “Turkey thinks of the Kurdistan region as a field they can implement their economic projects. Another approach they have is that the AKP government wanted to use the KDP against Rojava, and the PKK in the North.”

Jummo said the Southern Kurdistan administration didn’t follow the internal change that was happening in Turkey and couldn’t grasp what the Erdoğan-Bahçeli alliance meant.

“TURKEY’S PLANS FAILED, IRAN ENDED UP WITH MORE”

Jummo said that the relationship between Turkey and Iran during the referendum process couldn’t be described as a relationship between allied forces and stated that with Kirkuk coming under Baghdad’s control, Turkey’s plans failed and Iran ended up with more to gain.

“IF THEY FIND A CHANCE THEY WILL DECLARE WAR ON ROJAVA”

Jummo said if the Syrian Democratic Forces and the forces in Syria under Iran come face to face, the Northern Syrian Democratic Federation may also be affected.

He remarked that unlike Turkey, Iran has a rich political agenda and that it has organized itself as an Arab defense force in Hesekê and Shia forces in Deir Ez Zor. He also said Turkey can’t achieve its goals in Syria without Iran.

Investigative writer Hussain Jummo said Ankara and Tehran could implement their plans for war in Rojava if they find a chance but the balance position has a more determining effect than these forces.