On Sunday, Colombian people will vote in the first round for one of the three candidates running for President.

Unless one of the candidates would miraculously obtain more than 50% of the votes, this round will define the two people who will finally dispute the presidential chair.


With just over 36 million people entitled to vote, high abstention has usually been the norm in the calls to the polls. In the last presidential elections, for example, abstention reached almost 64%.


Ten families monopolised Colombian Presidency

For decades, only ten families of the old oligarchy, and their close circles of influence, have monopolized the Presidency of the Colombian Republic: on this occasion two of the candidates actually fit this rule of power sharing. We are talking about Vargas Llera and Iván Duque, both members of this exclusive circle of families that concentrate wealth and political influence.

Vargas Llera could be qualified as the successor of current president Juan Manuel Santos, while Iván Duque is the man of former President Alvaro Uribe.

Their differences in terms of programs and proposals are almost unnoticeable: both advocate economic and social neo-liberal agendas, and external relations based on ‘continuity’, that is, of close alliance with the US and a strong belligerent attitude towards their neighbor Venezuela.

Peace at stake

One of the few points of disagreement has to do with their attitude towards the crucial issue of peace and in concrete their vision of the Havana Final Peace Agreement, signed by President Santos government and the former guerrilla FARC-EP. While Vargas Llera is in favor of maintaining the peace process on track, on the contrary the Uribe’s man, Duque, has made no mystery of being against it.

It is also necessary to remember that in Havana there are ongoing talks between the current Santos government and the guerrillas of the ELN (National Liberation Army).


The third candidate: a surprise?

In this important electoral appointment, we must highlight the presence of a third candidate, Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla of the late M-19 group, demobilized in the 1990s. Petro, who was Mayor of Bogotá is a popular political leader of the Colombia Humana coalition, which could be defined as center-left. Petro and its coalition have developed an interesting electoral campaign and have achieved a remarkable social mobilization.


The candidacy of Petro could work as a catalyst for the votes of the important but fragmented Colombian left, that is to say, the student movement, the trade unions, associations of Human Rights, the Patriotic Union and the Communist Party, among others.


In his electoral manifesto, Petro has placed emphasis on social policies, especially with respect to health and education, while economically his program differs from the neo-liberalism that prevails in the country.

As to the regional relations, Petro seems more inclined to favour dialogue with the Government of Venezuela rather than confrontation.


Montage against Santrich and the FARC

The fundamental background to these elections clearly is the non implementation of the Final Peace Agreement. Indeed, the peace process is facing its worst crisis, and this had its climax with the imprisonment - in open violation of the Agreemen - of former guerrilla commander and executive of the legal political party FARC, Jesús Santrich.

Santrich is in now in a ecclesiastical institution, pending an extradition to the US for an accusation of drug trafficking, result of a clear set up devised by the Colombian prosecutor, in coordination with the DEA.

While the constant trickle of assassinations of social leaders and people linked to the demobilized guerrilla continues, the paramilitaries and drug trafficking groups are increasingly present in rural areas and urban peripheries.


At the end of this electoral campaign, reports and warnings of possible frauds have intensified, to the detriment of Gustavo Petro's candidacy, something that will have to be followed very closely.