The fall of Aleppo disrupted the balance
The fall of Aleppo was unexpected. In particular, the withdrawal of the Syrian army and Russian troops without a fight plunged the region into a dangerous imbalance and cleared the way for Turkey.
The fall of Aleppo was unexpected. In particular, the withdrawal of the Syrian army and Russian troops without a fight plunged the region into a dangerous imbalance and cleared the way for Turkey.
In Syria, there have been unexpected, very rapid developments in recent days. In Idlib, HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and the other forces had prepared themselves. There was a phase when the government in Damascus had concentrated many troops in the areas and there were repeated mutual battles. Tall Rifat and Shehba were protected to prevent Aleppo from being in danger. Areas such as Manbij were also considered in connection with Aleppo. The Turkish state has made many deals with Moscow and Damascus and people have thought about how to get the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) out of Manbij. But since that would put Aleppo in danger, it remained a theoretical consideration. Now what should not have happened has happened: Aleppo has fallen. Aleppo fell without any fight or resistance. This triggered a domino effect.
This gave HTS the momentum and morale to advance further. The jihadists took the city and raised the Turkish flag over the fortress of Aleppo. The road to Damascus was blocked and another advance began. The Syrian regime could have established a front in front of Aleppo. It had enough ammunition, firepower and air support. If the army had not left the positions, HTS would not have been able to advance. So the question arises why Russia and Syria gave up this strategic area without a fight. By giving up Aleppo, Damascus has put its very existence in danger. Now the regime says it is gathering its forces and will then go on the attack. This means nothing less than giving HTS and the other forces time to prepare to hold these areas. If the army prepares a counterattack and carries it out as announced, the destruction and loss of life will increase many times over.
The attacks on Shehba never stopped
Many of the Kurds displaced after Turkey occupied Afrin had settled in areas such as Tall Rifaat and Shehba. There were intensive preparations to protect the region from possible attacks. In any case, the attacks by the Turkish state and its mercenary troops had not stopped for a moment since 2018. All this time, the Autonomous Administration forces effectively defended the area and controlled the region. However, these areas were not fully under the protection of the Autonomous administration forces. Forces of the regime in Damascus, Russia and other allies were also present. They were firmly stationed and coordinated.
The regime wanted to seize control of Kurdish neighborhoods of Aleppo
The Kurdish neighborhoods of Aleppo were under the protection of the self-defense forces. This worried the regime and repeatedly caused tensions. The Assad regime aimed to bring Aleppo as a whole under its control. It repeatedly imposed strict embargoes on these districts and the Shehba region. However, dialogue always managed to avert a military escalation. The Kurdish population in these districts of Aleppo has maintained its own self-government and self-defense since 2012, and the population did not leave the districts even under the heaviest attacks by Islamists with poison gas and other weapons. Instead, these districts always remained islands of resistance. Here, the people were best prepared for the current attack and the defense measures were very good.
Retreat or war?
However, all defense measures were undermined by one factor. Aleppo fell to the jihadists against all calculations. In this way, areas such as Tall Rifaat and Shehba became open to attacks by Turkey. Even though HTS initially declared that it would not take any action against the Kurdish districts in Aleppo and had no intention of fighting the Kurds, the jihadists put a lot of effort into gaining control of the city as a whole. The people in the self-governing districts had no other option than to fight. The question arose whether to continue fighting against a superior force that was encircling them step by step or to retreat.
SNA is the Turkish state
Tall Rifaat and Shehba were directly attacked by the Turkish state. The so-called "Syrian National Army" (SNA) is a structure created and completely controlled by the Turkish state. The SNA is taking action against the population. Where Kurds live, a democratic autonomous administration has been established and the other peoples also live there in equality, self-government and peace. No one is discriminated against because of their culture or religion. It is the most progressive region in the entire Middle East. The Turkish state carried out ethnic cleansing in the regions it occupied. Kurds were expelled. This criminal policy was implemented primarily by the SNA.
So-called "opposition" is a puppet of Turkey
The so-called opposition under the control of Turkey has no political identity of its own. The current attacks, including the attack on Aleppo, are supported and orchestrated by Turkey. The Astana process has absolutely nothing to do with the peoples of Syria. It is a game between states that leads to an intensification of the occupation of Syrian territory.
Pathological Kurdish hatred
The Turkish state and its media never refer to HTS or al-Nusra as "terrorists". Meanwhile, the organization is on the terror lists of the United Nations, the US and the EU. The Turkish state calls it the "Syrian opposition" and tries to give legitimacy to the jihadist group. Turkish president Erdoğan would not mind if all of Syria came under the control of HTS or ISIS. He never said that terror corridors will not be allowed on the border. But when it comes to Kurds, the word Kurds is not even used, instead they talk about "Terroristan" or a "terror corridor". In the past, border areas of Syria were under the control of ISIS. Erdoğan never said that this posed a danger. He doesn't say that today either, because in the minds of the AKP-MHP regime there is an almost pathological hatred of Kurds. In addition, Erdoğan's thinking is no different from that of ISIS, al-Nusra or other jihadist gangs. How else could he have nurtured and cared for al-Nusra, or the new name HTS, in Idlib for years?