The AKP-MHP led Turkey wants to take their plan of invasion in Iraq and Bashure Kurdistan, which they launched a long time before Syria, to a new phase with a strategic partnership with the KDP.

Elections were held in Iraq on May 12. The President was elected on October 2 and tasked Adil Abdulmehdi with forming the new government. Abdulmehdi announced his cabined on October 25 and went to a vote of confidence. The parliament approved 14 ministers but vetoed 8 others. The parliament should have convened 2 weeks ago to vote on the 8 new ministers, but failed to do so. The parliament convened on Tuesday last week, but there is a blackout on whether the vote was held, or what the outcome was. There has been a crisis regarding the Interior and Justice Ministries.

THE SOURCE OF THE CRISIS AND ACTORS IN IT

Muqtada Al Sadr, leader of the Sairun coalition which came first in the elections, said they won’t participate in the new government and announced their criteria for form and support. He posed the requirement that some fundamental ministries be chosen from among technocrats instead of party members. When Nuri Maliki’s Rule of Law and Hashd al-Shaabi founder and official Faleh Fayyaz, who was removed from office by Abadi, was nominated for the Interior Ministry, Sadr objected. Sadr reminded Abdulmehdi of the conditions of their support and announced that they will withdraw their support. First reaction to Sadr came from the pro-Iran Rule of Law Coalition Chairperson Maliki, who said: “We won’t allow the change of Faleh Fayyaz and other candidates in the cabinet.” Hadi Amiri and Nuri Maliki’s approach despite Sadr’s framework being known from the start was seen as them not wanting to allow any government to survive unless they form it. There is also talk that the crisis is a product of the tensions between Iran, the US and Saudi Arabia.

BARZANI’S INVOLVEMENT

Another aspect is that this situation started after Barzani’s visit to Baghdad on November 22. Some are convinced that Masoud Barzani has agreed with Hadi Amiri and Nuri Maliki for the Interior Ministry. It is PUK that poses this opinion as fact. They claim this: Barzani, Maliki and Amiri pressured Abdulmehdi and reached an agreement in return for not giving the Justice Ministry to the PUK as it should have been. The Justice Ministry in fact wasn’t given to the PUK, and they announced that if they don’t have the ministry they will pull their MPs from the Iraqi parliament.

UNDER RISK OF FAILURE BEFORE COMPLETION

This double crisis has left Abdulmehdi’s not yet completed government of barely 2 months to face a fall. The PUK sent a committee to Baghdad to overcome the crisis. The committee had some meetings, but the outcome wasn’t declared to the public. The KDP is sending a committee to Baghdad early next week to unmake a possible agreement with the PUK.

OTHER TITLES FOR BARZANI

The only reason for Masoud Barzani’s visit to Baghdad and the only thing it achieved wasn’t the prevention of a PUK name from taking the Ministry of Justice. Barzani tried to show that Behram Salih becoming the President despite their objection doesn’t change the fact that they are the interlocutor and the authority in Federal Kurdistan, and he wanted to make the agreement reached between Turkey and (some factions within) the KDP regarding Kirkuk official in Baghdad through a meeting with Ershad Salihi.

ENCOURAGING CONFLICT BETWEEN PUK AND PKK

On top of their overtime in Baghdad, the KDP also made a fraudulent move in Federal Kurdistan. The Federal Goverment issued a ruling to shut down Tevgera Azadî through the Interior Ministry, but made Deputy Prime Minister Qubat Talabani of the PUK issue the decision. With this they aimed to,

- Pit the PUK and the Kurdish Freedom Movement against each other

- Attempt to involve the PUK in the cooperation with Turkey

- Make the PUK implement the shut-down decision despite the official status in Iraq, thus create issues between Baghdad and the PUK.

- Put Qubat Talabani in a difficult position against Baghdad and firing up disagreement within the PUK.

TAKING OVER THE ADMINISTRATION AS A FAMILY

As the PUK dealt with these issues, the KDP swiftly completed their rounds and parcelled out the Federal Kurdistan administration. The Presidency, Prime Ministry and National Security Undersecretariat all went to Barzanis. PUK is objecting to this outcome, and the prevalent view is that KDP’s insistence will lead to a dual-administration in Bashur again.

TURKEY ISN’T SATISFIED WITH SUBCONTRACTORS

The Turkish state is glad the KDP is spending all this effort, but isn’t satisfied and want to get involved as well. They are working actively to pit the KDP and PUK against the PKK and tear the PUK away from Baghdad. The PUK, having made a short-term wrong calculation, seems to have realized this plan, but it isn’t clear whether they will take any steps to undo it.

Turkey’s plan is dirty, efforts are intense, but still, the outcome will be determined by the political acumen of Kurds, the KDP and PUK in particular, and the will to refuse influence by colonialists.