Crisis in Iraq deepening

More accusations of fraud leave Iraq and South Kurdistan in a very delicate situation.

A week has passed since the Iraqi Parliament elections on 12 May. However, despite the promise by the Election Committee, the final results have yet to be disclosed. And accusations of fraud and irregularities increase.

Kurdish parties’ worries with the results

The crisis is widespread with accusations of fraud coming from across Iraq and especially from Bashur (South) Kurdistan. Having received no answer to their 6-points statement asking to repeat the election in South Kurdistan, the Gorran, the Coalition for Democracy and Justice, Komala Islam, the Islamic Yekgurtu, the Communist Party and the Bizutnawa parties announced they will not take part in any political activity.

At least three of the parties that signed the statement pointed out that their newly elected deputies will not take part in the swearing ceremony in the central Parliament, thus worsening an already delicate situation.

The Iraqi parliament and all the prime ministers to date have treated the Kurdish deputies in the Iraqi parliament as a block. And indeed the Kurdish deputies have often moved as a block. For this reason, the refusal of some Kurdish parties to participate in Iraqi parliamentary activities can create serious difficulties for both Baghdad and Hewler.

Crisis in South Kurdistan deepens

Aware of this danger, Iraq, Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi issued a statement appealing to the Iraqi High Electoral Council, which in turn took to Baghdad some 400 ballot boxes from South Kurdistan in order to count them by hand.

The fact that votes are being counted again by hand does not seem to solve the problem. Because there are some very critical situations.

For example, the second candidates in the list of Number 120 (New Generation Movement coalition) in Kirkuk faced a scandalous situation. No votes have been counted for the candidate, despite his wife, his mother, his father, his brothers, and he himself have voted for him.  

With a certain humor the candidate reacted to this situation by saying: “I could think my wife has betrayed me, but sure I would have not betrayed myself!”

Many cases like this have been exposed by deputies and parties that have brought them all together to ask for a new election in Kurdistan but also in Kirkuk and the controversial regions. Which is why, the current recount in Baghdad seems far from solving the problem.

This picture shows that the crisis is serious and is getting deeper. Eighty-one deputies, seeing the gravity of the situation, called on the Iraqi Parliament to convene for an emergency meeting. Of course, the decision to be taken by the parliamentary assembly will be important. The parliament may actually decide to repeat the election, or find another solution on which all parties could agree.

Even before the elections there were heavy discussion on the possible future government. The first party to come out of the 12 May election has been the Sairoun coalition (backed by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and the Iraqi Communist Party), followed by the Fatah Coalition (which is composed of members of the paramilitary Hashd al-Shaabi) and Prime Minister Abadi’s Nasr Coalition.

US and Iran make their moves

On the other hand, immediately after the elections, Brett McGurk, the US special envoy for the fight against the ISIS (DAESH), first visited Baghdad and then South Kurdistan. In both places he had various meetings.

McGurk's visit so soon after the elections and when the results were not yet clear, was considered to have been made to ensure any new government falls within the United States favour. This is likely to mean a government under President Abadi.

Which leads to the question: would the first and second coalition be happy with a government led by the third arrived coalition?

This is a separate question and a serious handicap at the same time. And the answer to that may lead to a new and deeper political crisis.

If the US is interested in a friendly Iraqi government, so is Iran. Each of these two powers are pulling the blanket on their side which could also lead to more tensions in the country and the whole region.

To add fuel to the fire, the statement by KDP executive Hêmin Hawrami, who indicates that the South Kurdistan parliamentary elections, scheduled for September, could be very difficult.

Cold war between KDP and PUK

Speaking about the new central government, Hawrami underlined that Iraqi President will be Kurd, not necessarily from the PUK. A statement which certainly will draw further comments. Because together with the Regional Presidency, there is also an agreement between the KDP and PUK regarding the Iraqi presidency.

According to this agreement, while the Iraqi presidency is left to PUK, the Presidency of the Kurdistan Region is left to the KDP. No doubt, the PUK will have no intention to leave both the Iraqi presidency and the Kurdistan regional presidency to the KDP. Therefore, this declaration surely will further complicate the already cold relations between the two parties and the other forces in the Kurdistan region.

No matter which way you are looking things from, it appears that the crisis will deepen and problems will increase. This is confirmed by the statements and comments coming out daily.

The 12 May elections have actually opened a new complicated period of political crisis.