The Syrian army and Russian forces have entered the Khan Sheikhoun district from the north and took most of the district and the highway under control. Gang groups to the south of the district have withdrawn, while the Turkish state’s Observation Point No.9 in Morek was left surrounded by the regime.

Turkey had taken on the role of gurantor for the removal of Al Nusra-led Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) and other gang groups from Idlib in the Astana and Sochi summits. With the withdrawal of these groups from the Khan Sheikhoun district to the south of Idlib, the district has come under control of Syrian and Russian forces for the most part.

GANGS WITHDRAW

The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) announced that the Turkish state-allied gang groups withdrew from Khan Sheikhoun and the northern rural areas of Hama.

When regime and Russian forces entered Khan Sheikhoun from the north, the Turkish state-backed gang groups withdrew from the Latamina, Kafr Zita, Morak, Lahaya and Markaba towns.

TWO CLAIMS

With the gangs withdrawing, the Turkish state’s observation point on the Zawiya mountain was left surrounded by regime forces. What will happen to the observation point is yet unknown, but Turkey is reportedly working on two scenarios.

The first is that the Turkish state will demand to settle the National Army gang groups that are close to them, armed with light weapons to where the HTS withdrew, based on the Sochi deal and the “demilitarized zone” cited therein. If this doesn’t happen, Turkey is planning to move the observation point to the south of the Maaraat Numan district.

There are claims that the Turkish state will be meeting with the Syrian regime with Russian mediation to keep the observation point where it is.

OCCASIONAL CLASHES CONTINUE

The Syrian regime and Russian forces haven’t taken full control of the area yet, reports say. Occasional clashes continue but the gang groups are withdrawing from the northeast of the town to the Maaraat Numan district.

THE CEASEFIRE HAD BEEN BROKEN

Two days before the August 5 meeting of the US and Turkey’s delegations in Ankara about the safe zone, Turkey, Russia and Iran met in Kazakhstan in the 13th Syrian Guarantors meeting. The Syrian regime declared a ceasefire in Idlib.

But on August 5, the day the meetings for a safe zone started, the Syrian regime announced that the conditional ceasefire in Idlib had been broken, and clashes broke out in the region. Syrian and Russian forces launched an operation from the air and ground against the Khan Sheikhoun district along the Aleppo-Damascus (M5) highway.

As a result of clashes that have continued since August 5, the Syrian army and regime forces took over many areas from the Turkey-backed gangs, and reached the M5 highway from the north of Khan Sheikhoun on Monday night.

TURKEY SENT BACK UP BUT COULDN’T GET IT IN TIME

The Turkish state has officially remained silent on the operation. They attempted to send backup soldiers and armored vehicles from Idlib to Morak where the observation points are on Monday morning, but the convoy was cut off by the regime and not allowed into Morak. Sources say the Turkish state sent a convoy of 50 vehicles, most of them armored, and at least 5 tanks.

TURKISH CONVOY HIT

Regime jets near the His village to the south of Maaraat Numan town struck the gang groups escorting the Turkish convoy and 3 gang members were killed, 12 injured. Turkish Defense Ministry claimed the casualties were civilians.

PUTIN GIVES FULL SUPPORT

During these developments on Monday, Moscow issued a statement of support for the operation. President Putin said during a press briefing with French President Macron, “Russia supports the Syrian army’s efforts against terrorists in Idlib.”

TURKEY’S OBSERVATION POINTS

During the Astana meetings between Russia, Iran and Turkey, it was decided on October 12, 2017 that Turkey would build 12 observation points to the north of Idlib and Hama, and the Turkish state transferred large numbers of heavy weapons and soldiers to these points.

SOCHI ACCORD

Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan signed a deal on September 17, 2018 in Sochi, Russia that stipulated the establishment of a 15 to 20 km demilitarized zone around Idlib and the opening of M4 and M5 highways for trade activity, and a total of 10 similar points.

TURKEY FAILED TO FULFILL ITS PROMISES

After the US and NATO got involved in Idlib and the regime said they would retaliate in case of chemical weapon use, the Turkish state failed to fulfill the promises it made in Sochi.

A NEW TRICK BY THE TURKISH STATE?

Observers say Turkey wants to take advantage of the conflict on the field between the US and Russia for a while longer, and them letting Khan Sheikhoun fall is a message to Russia that they are committed to their promises before the triple summit between Russia, Iran and Turkey to be held in Ankara on September 7.

Meanwhile, the Turkish state may ask Russia’s approval for the invasion of Tal Rifat in this meeting, say observers, and argue that with the Khan Sheikhoun move they are trying to threaten the US and NATO that if they don’t do what Turkey wants in the east of the Euphrates the country will just leave Idlib to Russia and the regime.