Time running out for Ankara: Idlib in turbulence

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on his way to Sochi again. Ankara has been negotiating over their gangs in Idlib, and they have recently intensified their weapons support to the gangs, as well as calling the gangs in Aleppo to Idlib.

The Syrian regime and their allies continue to prepare for the big operation in Idlib. Preliminary attacks before the operation have already started. The Syrian regime has also intensified their air strikes in the region recently. There are operations in Idlib and Hama, where the gangs are stationed.

Ankara and Western governments are trying to stop the operation. Westerners warn for “humanitarian disaster”, worried that the gangs will spill over to their territory, while the core patron and financier of the gangs Ankara has revamped meeting efforts to keep their presence in Idlib.

SOCHI MEETING

Currently in negotiations with Russia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has set out for Sochi once again. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Erdogan will meet today. There will be another meeting between committees from the two countries, made up of ministers and officials, as well as the meeting between the two leaders. The Turkish Presidential Office has issued a statement saying, “Issues in politics, economy and energy in the relationship between Russia and Turkey will be discussed during the meetings. There will be discussions on regional and international matters, starting with Syria.”

The previous meeting had been on September 7. Turkey, Iran and Russia came together in Tehran to discuss the Idlib issue. Ankara is trying to buy time by postponing the Idlib operation, but it is not yet clear what concessions have been made in return. Meetings are not transparent. Meanwhile, Ankara’s concerns continue to grow with each day.

“DIFFICULT TO ENDURE” PROCESS FOR ERDOGAN

According to Turkish media, Erdogan spoke to journalists in the plane as he was returning from Azerbaijan and said, “If this process continues in Idlib, there may be outcomes too heavy to bear. Without falling to that, we must find a solution with both Russia and the Coalition Forces.”

Erdogan called the Syrian government a “terrorist state” and added: “Let us take steps against the terrorist groups within the opposition in Idlib all together, let us take precautions. But let us not fabricate excuses to bomb the place.”

ANKARA INCREASED WEAPONS DISPATCHES TO GANGS AFTER TRIPLE SUMMIT

Erdogan says a possible operation against Idlib will be “disastrous” on one hand, and continues to heavily arm his gangs in the region on the other. According to an article by Reuters, the Turkish state has increased the weapons dispatches in the last weeks. The article based on the Ankara-backed gangs said dispatches have seen a significant increase after the triple summit in Tehran.

A chief in the “Free Syrian Army” gang structure spoke to Reuters and said, “The Turks have given us a promise of military support for a long term war.” The same person said the Turkish army has supplied them with large amounts of ammunition and Grad missiles.

TURKISH STATE CALLS GANGS IN ALEPPO TO IDLIB

The Turkish army has been sending reinforcements and heavy weapons to 12 observation points in Idlib for over a week. According to Reuters, the Turkish state has also asked the gangs in Aleppo to join the fronts in Idlib. This information is also sourced from two gang chiefs.

WILL ANKARA’S DEMAND BE MET?

The article, citing gang sources again, said the Turkish state has promised to take more energetic precautions against the “terrorists” in Idlib if Russia stops the large scale operation. Erdogan hopes the Damascus regime and Russia will restrict the operations to Tahrir Al Sham, founded by Al Nusra. It is not clear yet whether Putin will accept this or not.