We publish an analysis by Tuncay Yılmaz, SYKP (Socialist Refoundation Party) founding co-chair.

As time passes, the details will become clearer, but it is likely that the decision to topple Assad was made jointly by Trump and Putin. Of course, other powers like Turkey and Israel, who wanted this outcome, were also part of the equation, but these aspirations materialized as a result of an agreement between the two major forces on the ground.

During the U.S. elections, Trump’s campaign promise of "I will not start wars; I will end them" referred not to Syria, but to Ukraine. The developments in Syria seem like the price to be paid for ending the Ukraine-Russia war, with Assad's fall becoming a minor detail within the "big picture."

Trump likely persuaded Putin to relinquish Syria in exchange for extracting Russia from the quagmire of Ukraine. Syria would be redesigned according to U.S. preferences (with Israel's security playing a decisive role in the new Syria’s design), and in return, Putin would retain the territories gained in Ukraine, bringing the Ukraine-Russia war to an end.

But the bigger picture doesn’t end there—there’s more.

Detaching Russia from the SCO

The greatest adversary of the U.S., represented by Trump, is the Chinese state and its economy. The war that will define America’s future is not with Russia, Iran, or Syria. When China’s rapid advancements in production technology, its potential for cheap labor, and its capacity to secure valuable minerals and energy resources worldwide converge with the "One Belt, One Road (OBOR)" project, it will become almost impossible for U.S. capital to compete with Chinese capital. Trump's and U.S. capital's entire strategy is built and advanced with this grand vision in mind.

From this perspective, it is not hard to see that Trump wants to pull Putin (and Russia) out of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), centered around China. Trump is likely trying to convince Putin to "be smart" and detach Russia from the Eastern bloc, moving closer to the Western bloc.

Why wouldn’t Putin give up on Assad in exchange for solving the Ukraine issue without retreating and reopening trade routes with Europe?

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia’s gas flow to the EU was around 200 billion cubic meters. After the war, this dropped to 28.3 billion cubic meters. Apart from other trade items, Russia could earn €300 billion (at today’s prices) just from selling natural gas.

If Trump’s plan succeeds, Russia will be readmitted to the "Western rich club" while also being distanced from its alliance with China.

Neutralizing and Crippling Iran

In this compromise, Assad being “sold out” and Syria handed over to the U.S.-backed HTS gang would not even be up for discussion. Indeed, HTS and similar groups, which had been cornered in Idlib and losing ground for 14 years, managed to control all areas under Assad's regime (except the Mediterranean coastal strip) within 14 days.

With the "New Syria Plan," Trump primarily aimed to break Iran's Shia axis, cutting off its arms extending to Israel and the broader Middle East. He appears to have achieved this, at least for now, in Syria, as he had previously in Lebanon. The next step will likely involve dismantling the PMF in Iraq and neutralizing the Houthis in Yemen.

The U.S. “New Syria” operation seeks to tighten the circle around Iran, first rendering it ineffective in the region and then triggering dynamics from within and outside to overthrow the Iranian regime.

It is worth recalling that in 2021, Iran signed a 25-year "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement" with China. According to reports at the time, China would invest $400 billion over the period to modernize Iran's petrochemical, transportation, and manufacturing infrastructure in exchange for regular supplies of cheap oil. Revitalizing the One Belt, One Road project was part of the agreement.

A Russia severed from the SCO and distanced from China (which already faces many internal tensions) and an Iran whose regional influence is diminished, potentially facing regime change, would be very calculated moves to weaken China, the U.S.’s primary rival.

The move against Russia would disrupt China’s "Belt" plan through Mongolia, and the move against Syria-Iran would derail the "Road" plan via the Mediterranean and the Caucasus.

Encircling and Confining China to Asia

This way, energy and supply routes, belts, and bridges would remain under the control of the U.S. and its Western allies. With moves against Russia and China in West Asia, and alongside Japan in the Pacific, a besieged China would first be confined to Asia, and then efforts would be made to dismantle it.

The alternative to the One Belt, One Road Project—the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)—has already been announced.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S.’s "New Middle East Plan," driven by greed, left behind millions of dead and injured, destroyed cities, displaced people, and ravaged historical and cultural heritage in the Middle East. Unfortunately, the "Most Recent Middle East Plan," launched by Israel’s genocidal operations in Gaza, will create a similar picture.

It is unrealistic to expect Netanyahu-led Israel, HTS remnants, Turkey-backed SMO gangs, Erdoğan and Bahçeli-led Turkey striving to crush Rojava—the oasis of democracy in the Middle East—and the U.S., which supports them all, to bring peace and stability to the Middle East.