With the fall of Aleppo, the centre of the Syrian war, to the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the civil war in the country has rewound after 13 years. After Aleppo, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham also entered Hama and advanced to Homs, taking some villages. While the advance of HTS upsets all the balances in Syria, it is a matter of curiosity what course the war will take.

Battle of the blocs

The occupation of some regions by HTS and the Syrian National Army (SNA) affiliated to the Turkish state resonates as a result of the international intervention in the Middle East. Russia and Iran, the bloc where the intervention has taken place, still maintain their ‘silence’.

Clashes spread into the interior of Syria

While the clashes are expected to spread to the southern cities of Syria, such as the city centre of Homs, Daraa and Quneitra, it is also stated that sleeper cells of radical Islamic groups have been activated in these regions.

New Syria has whetted turkey's appetite

While the new situation in Syria has whetted the appetite of many regional powers that want to occupy the country, Turkey is one of the leading powers in question. Taking the changing and transforming balances in Syria as an opportunity, the Turkish state is seeking to completely liquidate North-East Syria. Taking advantage of the existing gaps in Syria, Turkey is preparing for many cities in the region, especially Manbij, and aims to evacuate the region.

The perception of ‘winning a war without a war’ in Manbij

Trying to create the perception of ‘winning a war without a war’ in the region, Ankara aims to gain psychological superiority by positioning the media organisations informed by the Special Warfare Department on the borderlines. However, the Turkish state and gang groups, such orientations of whom have been exposed, are now based on intimidating the people of the region by bombarding the villages on the borderline. The infiltration attempts of the Ankara-backed gang groups on the western, northern and southern lines of Manbij are repelled by the fighters of the Manbij Military Council.

West of the Euphrates policy

Based on 100 years of denial, the policy of driving the Kurds to the west of the Euphrates River is currently wanted to be shaped through Manbij after the fall of Aleppo. The city, which has a strategic position as the gateway to Aleppo, is an important stop where the west and east sides of the Euphrates River meet. At the same time, Manbij is one of the biggest examples showing that it can be a solution to the crisis and chaos that has been going on in the country for years with the common life it created during the Syrian civil war. An occupied Manbij also means the destruction of this influence.

Seeing the Kurds as actors in Syria

One of Ankara's main objectives is to prevent the Kurds and the dynamics they act with from being seen as actors in the new situation in Syria. On this basis, it intends to prevent the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from developing new moves and playing a role by opening harassing fires in some places and opening different fronts in others. The persistent attempts to draw the Autonomous Administration areas into the war are based on such policies. This is one of the main reasons for targeting Manbij.

Possibilities

As a matter of fact, the spread of the war to the south of Syria and its shift towards the Autonomous Administration areas may enable the SDF and the forces defending the people to undertake new roles and operations. With the advance of HTS to Homs, the movement of ISIS from the desert areas of Homs to the Deir ez-Zor line shows a different dimension of the war.

At this stage, the Turkish state, which does not want the Autonomous Administration to get stronger, is trying to persuade not only the SNA gangs but also HTS. However, remembering the examples of Mosul and Kobanê, HTS is cautious in this regard.