Qandil and the decline of the Turkish regime
In the run-up to the elections in Turkey, there are increasing signs of a decline in the ruling AKP/MHP government. They seek the way out in a military operation in southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq).
As the 24 June elections near, there are increasing signs of Erdoğan's demise. While "peaceful times" were instrumentalized for electoral success some time ago, Erdoğan's only hope is now war and conflict now. The target, as always, is the Kurds.
In recent days, a possible attack on Qandil has been made public several times. But there are basically long plans in this regard. According to various statements, the Kurdish side is informed about such an attack and accordingly prepared.
The Turkish government intensified its attacks on southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq) in the spring. Some areas in the border region were de facto occupied. Areas where guerrilla positions are suspected have been bombed for months. Drones fly over the areas 24 hours a day.
According to the statements of the People's Defense Forces (HPG), the guerrilla forces are scattered around the area so as not to become the target of the air strikes. The Turkish army, on the other hand, after the intense bombardment from the air, rescues soldiers with help of helicopters in the mentioned areas. The deployment of the soldiers is always carried out under the protection and observation of warplanes and drones. The soldiers build positions and warehouses in the region with the support of air force. The guerrillas, on the other hand, surround these positions and target them regularly. Corresponding footage have been published several times over the past few days on the website "Gerîla TV".
These developments have focused on the Bradost area in the last two months. The Turkish forces have set up some positions there, but clashes continue.
However, the Turkish army is not as close to Qendîl, as claimed in the Turkish media. The currently contested areas are closer to the Sidekan area. The goal of the Turkish attacks is to separate Xinere from Sidekan and take a stand there. It currently seems likely that the battles will last until the fall.
The current location of the Turkish soldiers is about 100 kilometers from the Qandil region. To get to Qandil, the Turkish troops have to cross Soran, Choman, Rewanduz and Diyana. However, these areas are impassable with vehicles. It is unclear what can happen in the steep mountains and deep valleys of the region.
The Turkish army is well aware of this. That is why it is very important to observe what preparations are made for the attack on Qandil. It is spoken of planned air raids, assassinations and kidnappings. It is also spoken in this context of demands to the United States. If possible, they want to conduct the pre-election attacks to influence the election results in their favor. But success is difficult. There are very extensive operation preparations against the Qandil mountains instead. The US has given the green light (in consideration of relations with Russia and developments in Syria), but it continues to refer Turkey to Baghdad. Ankara is again waiting for the conclusion of the formation of a government in Baghdad.
Also without Iran, a march on Qandil will not be possible. Because Qandil is located mostly on the border with Iran. For Iran, the situation is even more complicated, because such an attack on the Kurdish forces can bring about various problems for Tehran.
The KDP is well disposed towards the Turkish plans of attack. The other Kurdish forces are, however, not. Representatives of the KCK assume that an attack is possible, especially before the elections. KCK Executive Board member Mustafa Karasu told ANF: "The AKP can do anything, but in the event of an attack, the Kurds can turn it into greater success for themselves."
If one believes the Turkish representatives and media, the attack on Qandil is only a matter of time. So-called experts who do not even know where Qandil is on the map claim that the PKK is withdrawing its forces to Shengal.
It would come as no surprise if any time soon a Turkish flag is hoisted somewhere in Southern Kurdistan and this place is sold on television as Qandil. It will be tried to complete this coup before the elections. It is also likely that the losses suffered and Turkish soldiers killed before the elections will be addressed more intensively in order to lead the much needed psychological war for the country's internal control. The AKP/MHP regime is currently failing to put its own issues on the agenda, to keep the economy on its feet and to win votes. However, a military operation in the Qandil Mountains will impose a war on society and political life in the country.
This plan will continue to be followed after June 24th. If the AKP and MHP lose their majority in parliament on June 24, they could set a new election. To win the new elections, they need an even wider war. The war zone will be Kurdistan. So they will "update" their plan from the time of 7 June 2015. They will explain to society that they are at war and therefore no fundamental changes could be made. They will try to achieve “victory” and win the elections. But a victory in this area is not possible. With the acceleration of the war machine, they can only accelerate their own decline.