Contrary to expectations that the conflict in Syria, which has lasted for seven years, would come to an end with the victory over the Islamic State (IS) in Raqqa, the war with new military offensives has been rekindled by internal and external forces.

Actors such as the USA, Russia, Israel, England, France, Turkey and Iran join in the Syrian war. As a result of an agreement between the US and Russia, the forces of the Syrian regime and affiliated armed groups have withdrawn from the border with Jordan and Israel.

In the southern province of Daraa and the south-western province of Quneitra, now targeted by the Syrian military's offensives, armed groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (al-Nusra), which Turkey has been supporting for years, have been influential.

Offensive in southern Syria

In the region, where an operation of Arab forces with the support of the US, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt was expected previously, amazing developments have occurred lately. On the condition that Iran pulls all its forces out of the area, control over Daraa and the surrounding area has begun to pass into the hands of the Syrian regime with the support of Russia. The agreement, which also involves Israel, aims to break both the influence of Iran and Turkey in the region.

While the withdrawal of Iran on the one hand aims to secure the borders of Israel, on the other hand the militias supported by Turkey since the beginning of the war started to surrender and retreat to Idlib.

In this framework, the groups supported by Turkey in Syria have been pushed out one by one. This has a negative impact on Turkey's Syria policy. The groups that were previously forced out of Ghouta, Kalamun and Duma are now being expelled from the southern front as well. These armed forces are now moving either to Idlib or to the Arab force that the US is trying to build.

Idlib: The next station after the offensive in the south

As part of the agreement for the south of the country, eyes have been turned to Quneitra after Daraa. After the end of this offensive, the next target area is expected to be the Turkish-controlled area from Jarablus to Idlib. Currently, troop reinforcements of the Turkish army as well as occasional battles between groups close to Turkey and forces of the Syrian regime in the south of Idlib are reported.

If the crisis between these two sides in the region deepens, a major war could break out. Especially the region around the Abu Duhur airport and military base is a place of tension. According to reports, forces of the Syrian regime in this region have brought some places under their control.

Effects on Afrin

A possible war in this region would undermine the agreements of the Astana negotiations between Russia, Iran and Turkey, as well as affecting the situation of Afrin. One possible development in such an escalation would be that Russia could withdraw its permission to use Syrian airspace for Turkey.

Such a development could be in favor of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and include the possibility of liberation of Afrin. In this scenario, the SDF would have the opportunity not only to free Afrin, but also the other places in the Shehba region from the jihadist militias supported by Turkey.