Turkish invasion is doomed to fail

The Turkish army has been trying to capture the areas of Girê Bahar and Sergelê in South Kurdistan for 14 days. It has been surrounded by guerrillas and has even lost air supremacy.

On 3 July, the Turkish army began attacking the areas of Girê Bahar and Sergelê in the western Zap region in the guerrilla-held Medya Defense Zones in southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq) on three fronts. This operation was an attack that differed from the previous ones and highlighted some important points. The most striking thing is that, for the first time, the Turkish occupying army openly advanced with military convoys from the Amêdîyê district in the Duhok governorate via official KDP positions and checkpoints to Sergelê in front of the eyes of the world public.

The attack was carried out in a combination of air-to-ground operations and aimed to take the guerrillas by surprise, break their defences by overpowering them, declare a quick victory and occupy the area. However, the Turkish army had to abandon its plan and retreat to the eastern and western slopes of Girê (Hill) Bahar. There they quickly found themselves trapped by the guerrillas.

The first offensive was crushed

At the beginning of the operation, the Turkish army relied on covert units to infiltrate the region. At the same time, it attempted to station itself in central locations and set up checkpoints. Air strikes were intended to restrict the guerrillas' radius of movement. From the beginning of the attack, the guerrillas systematically implemented a counter-strategy. They initially observed the covert units and eliminated them one by one. Most of the soldiers were killed, others fled. Some soldiers even fell from the rocks and died. While the soldiers tried to establish positions, the guerrillas struck them on five fronts. The army was completely on the defensive, and when it was not possible to establish air superiority, the troops lost almost all military capacity.

The first step in war is very important. As many experts in the art of war have said, winning a war is based on adequate planning. It is obvious that the Turkish occupation army did not base its plans on the guerrilla warfare and the problems it would face. The failure of the occupation army in the very first attack gave the guerrillas a further boost of motivation. We will all see how badly the Turkish army will perish in the coming days. The images broadcast by Gerîla TV are proof of this.

In recent years, it has become clear that the initiative on the ground has passed to the guerrillas. The Turkish army has therefore relied almost entirely on aerial operations. There is actually no real fighting army on the ground. This is proven by the fact that the guerrillas suffered very few casualties in the ground battles. In contrast, the invasion forces suffered serious losses. The guerrillas' aerial developments this year are decisive. The drones, a technology in which the Turkish army pinned all its hopes, are now regularly shot down in the combat zone. So far, 17 armed combat drones have been taken out of the sky by the guerrillas. These drones are the pride of the Turkish state, and the defeat could not be clearer. The fact that two Sikorsky helicopters have also been shot down by guerrillas at Girê Bahar in the past few days adds to this.

Two guerrilla units carried out 40 airstrikes

Guerrilla airstrikes have also reached a new level. In the past two months, the ‘Şehîd Doğan Zinar’ and ‘Şehîd Axîn Mûş’ units have carried out 40 airstrikes. The losses inflicted on the invasion forces during these actions were undoubtedly heavy. While the guerrillas continue to neutralise the Turkish drone war, they are now also able to operate effectively in the airspace themselves.

The most important effect of these actions is of a psychological nature. Neither the trenches nor high walls can protect the soldiers from guerrilla attacks. Although the army uses the most advanced technologies, it has not been able to prevent these guerrilla actions. The creativity of the guerrillas is more than evident here. Kamikaze drones are currently being used in the war in Ukraine and Gaza, but it is clear that drones cannot achieve results against the guerrillas in Kurdistan. This also shows that the guerrillas are able to outmanoeuvre the most advanced war technology.

Another notable point is that the guerrillas filmed these attacks from all angles, even from the air. If the guerrillas were trapped in the region, as Erdoğan claims, how could they feel safe enough to film these attacks in such an organised manner? It is clear that the Turkish state cannot and will not answer this question.

The guerrillas determine the action

With sophisticated defence and offensive tactics and creative techniques, the guerrillas assert their dominance on the battlefield. They have proven their skills in tunnel warfare. With specialised units on the ground, the guerrillas deal heavy blows to the attackers. The reality created by specialised aircraft makes the situation a nightmare for the occupying troops. The guerrillas have developed into a professional army that controls the conditions of war on the ground, underground and in the air.

All of these factors had a major influence on the fighting around Girê Bahar and Sergelê. What happens in the combat zones is observed and recorded by the people there. The fact that many people remain in the region despite the war is due to the fact that they have seen the guerrilla resistance with their own eyes. The guerrilla air strikes in particular have created a completely new atmosphere.

The KDP and the Turkish state want to hide the reality

To prevent this reality from coming to light even more clearly, the Turkish state and the KDP have arrested journalists in the region in recent days. The KDP has threatened to imprison those who take and disseminate pictures from the region. If the Turkish occupation army was as successful as the Turkish media claims, why is it afraid of the facts being spread by the people who are in the region? It is obvious that the opposite of success, namely a historic defeat, is the case. The reason why the Turkish army has stepped up its attacks on the villages in the region in recent days is the anger caused by this defeat. Kurdish and Syriac villages in the region are being bombed, people's fields and gardens are being burnt and people are being forced to flee. Villages are being forcibly evacuated so that the Turkish state can realise its occupation ambitions. But the guerrillas stand in the way of these intentions. At the same time, Kurdish youth in southern Kurdistan are mobilising to resist. There can be no question of the defence forces giving up or being defeated.

The destruction of nature is one of the aims of this operation. The Turkish state is cutting down trees and setting fire to fields and forests. This is being carried out by the army, paramilitary village guards and the private sector. These attacks are part of the campaign of destruction against the Kurdish people. Trees are being felled that are older than the Turkish state. This fact is another good illustration of the reality of Turkish attacks.

The KDP’s behaviour in this area shows that it has become part of the occupation operation. There are many contradictions and differences of opinion in the Iraqi government. Some express concern about this invasion, while others openly condemn it. It is obvious that the Iraqi government is not united. The Turkish state is taking advantage of this situation. It is trying to make Baghdad unable to act through Iraq's internal contradictions. In other words, it is pursuing a policy of exacerbating the existing crisis. However, this situation is not acceptable to the people of Iraq. They have seen how nine people were killed in Perex by the attack of the Turkish state. They see the catastrophic consequences of the invasion attacks and the prohibition signs that de facto designate the Amêdîyê region as Turkish-occupied territory. In the coming days, the Iraqi government will either have to take a stand or face a wave of protests. If it does not take a stand, it will be practically paving the way for the occupation of Dohuk, Hewlêr (Erbil) and Mosul by the Turkish state.

The Turkish state has lost all initiative

After 14 days of the invasion operation in the Amêdîyê region, it has become clear that the Turkish state is in serious trouble. From the outset, it has lost control of the region and the initiative in the war. The guerrillas are attacking the invasion forces from all sides. They are fighting in the spirit of a hundred years of revenge and reckoning with the Turkish state. In the coming days there will be developments that will surprise many. We will see how the Turkish occupation army will be defeated and the guerrillas will win with their methods and tactics.